October 15, 2014
World may not be able to meet China soy demand by 2024
In 10 years' time China will need to import soy more than the world can supply, analyst LMC International said. The country, it added, needs the oilseed more for its soymeal than for its oil.
"If China continues to import at [the current levels], we are going to run out of soybeans," LMC senior economist Julian McGill said, adding that the country's projected demand can go as much as 180 million tonnes annually by 2024, or more than the combined exportable surplus of Argentina, Brazil and the US.
McGill said there is reason for investors to become "relatively bullish" on soymeal prices in the long term as China needs the soyby-product for its growing meat-production industry that feeds on the country's rising population and wealth.
The impending return of meal as driver of oilseed markets follows a period when vegetable oils set the pace, spurred by demand from the European Union and the US for use as raw materials for biodiesel.
The use of biodiesel has since been lessened with the curbing of blend rates, thus curtailing the vegetable oils boom as biodiesel prices converge with those of crude oil.